WALAILAK KEERATIPIPATPONG

     Ubon Ratchathani _ Lower pledging paddy prices under the state intervention scheme for the next crop year will make Thai rice more competitive abroad and help drive export revenue nearer 100 billion baht, leading exporters say. The government's targeted price for 2006-07 Hom Mali paddy is 8,700 to 9,000 baht per tonne compared with 9,700 to 10,000 baht of the previous crop, and 6,100 to 6,500 baht a tonne for white-rice paddy, down from 6,700 to 7,100 baht last year.

     ''This will narrow the export price gap between our rice and that of Vietnam. Generally, if the difference is around US$15 per tonne, we can compete with them,'' said Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Rice Exporters Association.

     ''Earlier, high pledging prices and the strong baht made Thai rice $60 more expensive than Vietnamese rice and caused us to reduce the 2006 exports to 7.2 million tonnes during the mid-year review,'' he told about 100 millers and exporters at a meeting over the weekend.

     Thanks to the brighter outlook in the second half and a shortfall of Vietnam rice, Thailand would likely ship more than 7.5 million tonnes of rice by the end of the year, he said.

    The association has also hoped that droughts that severely hit fields in many rice-producing countries would push up demand for the grain and enlarge the global rice trade by at least two million tonnes next year, half of which could come from Thailand.

    The additional shipments, together with the government's plan to offload its huge stockpile of 3.1 million tonnes, could result in Thai rice exports increasing to 10 million tonnes next year.

    This would mark the second year that Thai rice exports have hit 10 million tonnes after 2004, when the government also had discharged a large amount of rice in its stock.

     Exporters are confident of shipping around 8.5 million to nine million tonnes next year, generating income of 94 million baht at the exchange rate of 36-37 baht a dollar.

     ''And if demand exceeds nine million tonnes and the baht remains weak, revenue from rice could reach 100 billion baht next year,'' he said.

   ''We see a bright export prospect next year and it is a good opportunity for the government to offload its large stockpile.''

     Export markets for white rice are Middle East countries and the Philippines (two million tonnes each), Indonesia (1.5 million tonnes), and Nigeria (1.8 million tonnes).

     For Hom Mali rice, Thailand plans to ship around 2.2 million tonnes next year, of which the United States and Hong Kong command the biggest shares of 400,000 and 300,000 tonnes respectively.

     During an annual survey on fields in the Northeast, the country's largest rice-growing area, exporters and millers acknowledged that not only had the rice fields in the region not been affected by the drought, but its output was also likely to increase to 10-11 million tonnes of paddy thanks to the Xangsane typhoon.

     Traders said they felt relieved as output from the area could somewhat offset losses from inundated fields in the central part of the country.

     In a related development, Mr Chookiat said that rice exporters from Thailand and Vietnam would meet tomorrow in Bangkok to pursue their co-operation on rice exports. Among the topics to be discussed are the outlook and prices for next year.

     Vietnam, through the state-run Vinafood Corporation, will also ask Thai exporters to invest in rice silos and mills in its country.